Dengue control must move from reactive response to climate-informed prevention. Reported dengue cases increased 1.5-fold over the last decade, with the largest rises in South Asia (+45%) and Latin America (+38%). Molecular testing found dengue genetic material in 42% of sampled mosquitoes, especially in dense urban areas. Travel also amplified risk: in 2023, 12% of dengue cases reported in Europe were linked to travelers returning from tropical regions. Looking ahead, the models project a 25% expansion of vector habitats in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia by 2050, 15-25% expansion in the Americas, and 35-50% expansion in Southern Europe, where transmission potential could rise threefold by mid-century. The study shows how climate adaptation needs differ by region: flood-prone Southeast Asia may see a 40% increase in mosquito density and a 45% rise in dengue cases by 2050, Southern Europe a 35% increase in mosquito density and a 50% rise in cases, and East African coastal areas a 20% increase in mosquito density and a 35% rise in cases. At global level, the study estimates a 25% increase in mosquito density and a 35% rise in dengue cases. The paper also shows that adaptation works: greenhouse gas reduction plus stronger public health infrastructure could cut spread by up to 40%, while countries with effective vector control, such as Singapore and Malaysia, achieved a 30% reduction in dengue incidence.
The study explains that climate change and global travel are reshaping dengue transmission. Over the last 20 years, global average temperature increased by 0.9 °C, helping Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus expand into higher latitudes and altitudes. In Nepal and northern India, mosquitoes are now established above 1.500 m, and in Southeast Asia vector habitats shifted upward by about 300 m. Rainfall and humidity also matter: where rainfall increased by 15%, mosquito populations rose by 20%, and where relative humidity was above 75%, dengue transmission competence was 1.3 times higher. These changes are especially important for adaptation because they turn previously unsuitable areas in Europe, North America and high-altitude Asia into emerging risk zones that need surveillance and prevention before large outbreaks occur.
The article used a mixed-methods design that combined quantitative and qualitative evidence. It analysed 20 years of climate data on temperature, humidity, precipitation and extreme weather, together with epidemiological data on dengue cases and travel data on routes and visitor flows. Vector information came from field surveys and mosquito sampling, and molecular tests were used to detect dengue virus in mosquitoes. Trends were examined with regression and time-series analysis in R and Python. The study also used VECTRI and DynAedes models to project future transmission, ArcGIS for spatial analysis and Gephi for travel-related transmission networks. A systematic review and policy analysis were added to assess climate adaptation strategies, traveler health management and public health preparedness.
Climate change significantly affects global health, particularly through the increased transmission of vector-borne diseases like dengue fever. Rising temperature, changing rainfall, higher humidity and more extreme events are helping Aedes mosquitoes survive, reproduce and spread, while travel connects these new risk areas.
Dengue control must move from reactive response to climate-informed prevention. Reported dengue cases increased 1.5-fold over the last decade, with the largest rises in South Asia (+45%) and Latin America (+38%). Molecular testing found dengue genetic material in 42% of sampled mosquitoes, especially in dense urban areas.
The paper shows that adaptation works: greenhouse gas reduction plus stronger public health infrastructure could cut spread by up to 40%, while countries with effective vector control, such as Singapore and Malaysia, achieved a 30% reduction in dengue incidence.
